Short-Term Recession = Long-Term Jobs Problem

Over the past few weeks, the nation's economic pundits have gone from saying that the U.S. likely would avoid a recession to saying that that the U.S. likely will enter a recession to saying that the U.S. likely is in a recession but that it will be a brief one. Overlooked is the fact that even a short recession can have long-lasting effects on the labor market.

A new study prepared by the Center for Economic and Policy Research argues that a recession's negative impacts on employment, wages, incomes and poverty will last much longer than the recession itself. Based on an analysis of past downturns, the study's authors estimate that a mild recession will last between six and nine months with the labor market impacts reverberating until 2010.

The authors further forecast that a mild recession will raise the national unemployment rate, reduce the share of people with jobs, drive down family incomes, increase the number of poor households and further reduce the share of the population with health insurance coverage.

In November, the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities reviewed state fiscal reports and conducted a phone and email survey of state legislative and executive budget officials in the 50 states and DC. The findings suggest the combination of a slowing economy and ill-considered state policies has already weakened state fiscal conditions in many states, including Oklahoma.
For additional information, click on the links below.


http://www.okbudgetalliance.org/budget/index.aspx

http://www.okpolicy.org/